First 'Alien Earth' Will Be Found in 2013, Experts Say


More exoplanets than expected in the first year of the Habitable Exoplanets Catalog. Image released Dec. 6, 2012.
CREDIT: PHL @ UPR Arecibo, ESA/Hubble, NASA

The first truly Earth-like alien planet is likely to be spotted next year, an epic discovery that would cause humanity to reassess its place in the universe.

While astronomers have found a number of exoplanets over the last few years that share one or two key traits with our own world — such as size or inferred surface temperature — they have yet to bag a bona fide "alien Earth." But that should change in 2013, scientists say.

"I'm very positive that the first Earth twin will be discovered next year," said Abel Mendez, who runs the Planetary Habitability Laboratory at the University of Puerto Rico at Arecibo.




Planets piling up:

Astronomers discovered the first exoplanet orbiting a sunlike star in 1995. Since they, they've spotted more than 800 worlds beyond our own solar system, and many more candidates await confirmation by follow-up observations. [The Strangest Alien Planets (Gallery)]

NASA's prolific Kepler Space Telescope, for example, has flagged more than 2,300 potential planets since its March 2009 launch. Only 100 or so have been confirmed to date, but mission scientists estimate that at least 80 percent will end up being the real deal.

The first exoplanet finds were scorching-hot Jupiter-like worlds that orbit close to their parent stars, because they were the easiest to detect. But over time, new instruments came online and planet hunters honed their techniques, enabling the discovery of smaller and more distantly orbiting planets — places more like Earth.

Last December, for instance, Kepler found a planet 2.4 times larger than Earth orbiting in its star'shabitable zone — that just-right range of distances where liquid water, and perhaps life as we know it, can exist.

The Kepler team and other research groups have detected several other worlds like that one (which is known as Kepler-22b), bringing the current tally of potentially habitable exoplanets to nine by Mendez' reckoning.


Zeroing in on Earth's twin:

None of the worlds in Mendez' Habitable Exoplanets Catalog are small enough to be true Earth twins. The handful of Earth-size planets spotted to date all orbit too close to their stars to be suitable for life. [Gallery: 9 Potentially Habitable Exoplanets]

But it's only a matter of time before a small, rocky planet is spotted in the habitable zone — and Mendez isn't the only researcher who thinks that time is coming soon.

"The first planet with a measured size, orbit and incident stellar flux that is suitable for life is likely to be announced in 2013," said Geoff Marcy, a veteran planet hunter at the University of California, Berkeley, and a member of the Kepler team.

Mendez and Marcy both think this watershed find will be made by Kepler, which spots planets by flagging the telltale brightness dips caused when they pass in front of their parent stars from the instrument's perspective.

Kepler needs to witness three of these"transits" to detect a planet, so its early discoveries were tilted toward close-orbiting worlds (which transit more frequently). But over time, the telescope has been spotting more and more distantly orbiting planets — including some in the habitable zone.



An instrument called HARPS (short for High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher) is also a top contender, having already spotted a number of potentially habitable worlds. HARPS, which sits on the European Southern Observatory's 3.6-meter telescope in Chile, allows researchers to detect the tiny gravitational wobbles that orbiting planets induce in their parent stars.

"HARPS should be able to find the most interesting and closer Earth twins," Mendez told SPACE.com via email, noting that many Kepler planets are too far away to characterize in detail. "A combination of its sensitivity and long-term observations is now paying off."

And there are probably many alien Earths out there to be found in our Milky Way galaxy, researchers say.

"Estimating carefully, there are 200 billion stars that host at least 50 billion planets, if not more," Mikko Tuomi, of the University of Hertfordshire in England, told SPACE.com via email.

"Assuming that 1:10,000 are similar to the Earth would give us 5,000,000 such planets," added Tuomi, who led teams reporting the discovery of several potentially habitable planet candidates this year, including anexoplanet orbiting the star Tau Ceti just 11.9 light-years from Earth. "So I would say we are talking about at least thousands of such planets."

What it would mean:

Whenever the first Earth twin is confirmed, the discovery will likely have a profound effect on humanity.

"We humans will look up into the night sky, much as we gaze across a large ocean," Marcy told SPACE.com via email. "We will know that the cosmic ocean contains islands and continents by the billions, able to support both primitive life and entire civilizations."

Marcy hopes such a find will prod our species to take its first real steps beyond its native solar system.

"Humanity will close its collective eyes, and set sail for Alpha Centauri," Marcy said, referring to the closest star system to our own, where an Earth-size planet was discovered earlier this year.

"The small steps for humanity will be a giant leap for our species. Sending robotic probes to the nearest stars will constitute the greatest adventure we Homo sapiens have ever attempted," Marcy added. "This massive undertaking will require the cooperation and contribution from all major nations around world. In so doing, we will take our first tentative steps into the cosmic ocean and enhance our shared sense of purpose on this terrestrial shore."


Artist's concept of the potentially habitable planet candidate Tau Ceti f, which was detected in December 2012. The possible planet, which is found just 11.9 light-years from Earth, is at least 6.6 times as massive as Earth.
Follow SPACE.com senior writer Mike Wall on Twitter @michaeldwall or SPACE.com @Spacedotcom. We're also on Facebook and Google+.

One 'Hobbit' continues to rule them all at theaters

Peter Jackson's 'Lord of the Rings' prequel crosses the $200 million mark over the holidays as 'Django Unchained' and 'Les Miserables' enjoyed strong holiday weekends, as well.
Nothing could separate The Hobbit from its precious perch atop the box office this weekend, though two Oscar hopefuls made valiant attempts.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey topped theaters for the third consecutive weekend, doing $32.9 million, according to studio estimates from Hollywood.com.

The first in a trilogy of Lord of the Rings prequels,Hobbit has done $222.7 million since its release Dec. 14.

The weekend also saw a robust battle of the sexes as the musical Les Miserables opened against Quentin Tarantino's graphic spaghetti western Django Unchained on Christmas Day.

If estimates hold Monday, the weekend battle will go toDjango, though both movies gained significant momentum in the hunt for Oscar nominations Jan. 10.

Django corralled $30.7 million, bringing its five-day total to $64 million.

Les Miserables, which was dominated by female audiences, did $28 million over the weekend and $67.5 million since Christmas.

The movies are in position for strong runs through the New Year's Day holiday, as both earned strong reviews from critics and fans.

Django scored a thumbs-up from 89% of critics, says survey site Rottentomatoes.com. Fans were more impressed, as 93% said they liked the film, starring Jamie Foxx and Leonardo DiCaprio.

Les Miserables, meanwhile, earned recommendations from 72% of critics, while 86% were singing the praises of the musical, starring Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway.

Despite tough reviews — only 17% of critics liked it — the Billy Crystal comedy Parental Guidance scored above projections, taking in $14.8 million for the weekend and $29.6 million over five days.

The Tom Cruise thriller Jack Reacher rounded out the top 5, taking in $14 million and lifting its gross to $44.7 million since its release Dec. 28.

weekend ended Hollywood's tumultuous year on an up note. Despite months nearly devoid of a hit, the industry saw sales hit a record $10.8 billion in 2012, according to Hollywood.com. The figure represents a 6% increase in revenues and a 5% uptick in attendance over 2011, the site says.



BlackBerry Fans Don't Like The New BB10

A few more photos of RIM's next keyboard-equipped BlackBerry leaked out today.
The phone will run BlackBerry 10, the new mobile operating system from RIM that will formally launch on Jan. 30.
Now take a look at some of the comments on CrackBerry, a site dedicated to RIM news and full of readers who love BlackBerry. The reception of the leaked keyboard BB10 phone isn't so good. Out of the ~300 comments posted so far, there's a lot of negativity mixed in.

One of the recent BB10 keyboard phone leaks.

Here are three examples that we cleaned up for grammar, spelling, profanity, etc.:
"This has to be the worst possible design for a combination touch-screen and physical keyboard smartphone. Why is Research In Motion shooting themselves in the foot yet again? The screen size makes any touch-screen interface functionality an exercise in frustration. The BlackBerry Z10 (Zero) with a slider keyboard makes more sense from an aesthetics and usability perspective. Not impressed."
"I am extremely disappointed with this phone. At this rate I'd rather go with the Z10 or stay with my 9900. That screen just looks wrong for some reason and don't get me started on the back! I hope this isn't the final model, but in any case I'll only be able to properly judge it when it's in my hands."
"I'm a proud Bold 9900 user and I knew this resolution was 720x720, meaning it was only going to increase in screen size with the trackpad and call buttons removed. I don't like it at all. Too much wasted space at the top. 9900/9930 users would not feel like they've upgraded with this phone despite the OS. Ill be getting the Z10 version until they drop another QWERTY version with taller screen. Plus the phone itself looks small like a curve! What? No thanks."
We point this out because BlackBerry fans have had very positive things to say about all these BB10 leaks until now. It seems like most are more excited for the touchscreen-only model as opposed to the one with the keyboard.

It's also important to note that this is just a leak. There's no guarantee that the final version of the keyboard-equipped BB10 phone will look like the one in the photo. And some people are saying this is just a test device given to developers, not the device consumers will get next year.

Read more: http://crackberry.com/new-pictures-blackberry-x10

Italian police seize $6 trillion of fake U.S. bonds


Italian police seize $6 trillion of fake U.S. bonds

(Reuters) - Italian police said on Friday they had seized about $6 trillion worth of fake U.S. Treasury bonds and other securities in Switzerland, and arrested eight Italians accused of international fraud and other financial crimes.

The operation, co-ordinated by prosecutors from the southern Italian city of Potenza, was carried out by Italian, Swiss and U.S. authorities after a year-long investigation, an Italian police source said.

It began as a investigation into mafia loan-sharking, but gradually expanded as prosecutors used telephone and computer intercepts to unearth evidence of illegal activity surrounding Treasury bonds.

The fake securities, worth more than a third of U.S. national debt, were seized in January from a Swiss trust company where they were held in three large trunks.

The U.S. Embassy in Rome thanked the Italian authorities and said the forgeries were "an attempt to defraud several Swiss banks". It said U.S. experts had helped to identify the bonds as fakes.

Potenza's prosecutor Giovanni Colangelo said an international network "in many countries" was behind the forgeries.

Italian daily Corriere della Sera said on its website that the criminal network was believed to be interested in acquiring plutonium, citing sources at the prosecutors' office.

VERSAILLES

Police videos showed images of the trunks, with "Federal Reserve System, Treaty of Versailles" stamped on the side in large, golden letters.

Bond certificates marked "Chicago, Illinois, Federal Reserve Bank" and other securities, some for one billion dollars, were also shown.

U.S. bond traders took a light-hearted view of the news.

"If there's that much less supply now, Treasuries should be rallying," joked Kevin Flanagan, fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.

A trader at Citigroup said he had swapped jokes with colleagues about the seizure, which would not move markets.

"It's kind of like fake inflation I guess, if you take it to the max, but I don't think it means that much."

Prosecutors said the forgers had hoped to use the fake bonds as collateral to secure loans.

The eight men arrested are accused of counterfeiting bonds, credit card forgery, and loan-sharking in the Italian regions of Lombardy, Piedmont, Lazio and Basilicata, police said.

The Swiss Federal Prosecutor's office said Zurich state prosecutors had worked on the investigation at the request of the Italian prosecutor. The Swiss handed over their findings in July last year.

In 2009, Italian financial police seized $742 billion of fake U.S. bearer bonds in the of Chiasso, on the Swiss-Italian border.

Mystery fossil turns out to be giant fungus

Scientists have identified the Godzilla of fungi, a giant, prehistoric fossil that has evaded classification for more than a century, U.S. researchers said on Monday.

A chemical analysis has shown that the 20-foot-tall (6-metre) organism with a tree-like trunk was a fungus that became extinct more than 350 million years ago, according to a study appearing in the May issue of the journal Geology.

Known as Prototaxites, the giant fungus originally was thought to be a conifer. Then some believed it was a lichen, or various types of algae. Some suspected it was a fungus.

"A 20-foot-fungus doesn't make any sense. Neither does a 20-foot-tall algae make any sense, but here's the fossil," C. Kevin Boyce, a University of Chicago assistant professor of geophysical sciences, said in a statement.

Francis Hueber of the National Museum of Natural History first suggested the fungus possibility based on an analysis of the fossil's internal structure, but had no conclusive proof.

Boyce and colleagues filled in the blanks, comparing the types of carbon found in the giant fossil with plants that lived about the same time, about 400 million years ago.

If Prototaxites were a plant, its carbon structures would resemble similar plants. Instead, Boyce found a much greater diversity in carbon content than would have been expected of a plant.

Fungi, which include yeast, mold and mushrooms, represent their own kingdom, neither plant nor animal. Once classified as plants, they are now considered a closer cousin to animals but they absorb rather than eat their food.

Samples of the giant fungi have been found all over the world from 420 million to 350 million years ago during a period in which millipedes, bugs and worms were among the first creatures to make their home on dry land. No animals with a backbone had left the oceans yet.

The tallest trees stood no more than a couple of feet (a meter) high, offering little competition for the towering fungi.

Plant-eating dinosaurs had not yet evolved to trample Prototaxites' to the ground. "It's hard to imagine these things surviving in the modern world," Boyce said.

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Ai Weiwei Released from Chinese Custody

China's best known artist, Ai Weiwei, has been stuck away in a Chinese jail since his arrest in early April. He was released today.
"I'm out. I'm fine," the Los Angeles Times quotes the artist as texting on his release.
We're delighted when anyone unjustly imprisoned for the sake of politics is released, but ReadWriteWeb has a particular connection to Ai.

Our founder, Richard MacManus, took part in a roundtable on digital activism with Ai in New York last year.
Since that time, Richard has written about his latest art opening, which took place in New York City while he was imprisoned, and about the efforts concerned Chinese were making to get him out. '






Why arrest Ai in the first place? He is an artist, free speech advocate and architect of global standing. Although he had never had a solo show in China, he designed the celebrated "Birds Nest" stadium that was the center of the Beijing Olympics. He allegedly had plans to relocate to Germany, where he had set up a studio. So, he is high-profile and has a big mouth, which he knows how to use. But his arrest was hardly the exception to the rule.
Since the Arab Spring has sent the scent of jasmine far beyond the borders of the Muslim world, one of the places it has reached is China. According to Amnesty International, Ai was only "one of over 130 activists, lawyers, bloggers and tweeters detained since February in a sweeping crackdown on dissent prompted by government fears of a 'Jasmine Revolution' inspired by the Middle East and North Africa."
We wrote about this crackdown, and the accompanying surge in Chinese military spending, in March. Some have suggested this particular campaign in the war on free expression has ended and Ai's release may be a part of that draw-down. Perhaps. The war as a whole is not remotely over, however.
The Los Angeles Times quoted Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, as excusing Ai's release "because of his good attitude in confessing his crimes as well as a chronic disease he suffers from."